First, it’s not me thinking anything today except: an odd, ugly, yet glorious night of baseball in the nation’s capital; no one has ever seen anything like it before, unless you recall Game 7 of the 1960 World Series, which was ugly until it was beautiful. The ten things in today’s post are thought by Elliott Kalb, Senior Editorial Director of MLB Network, and the MLB Network Research Department, notably Marc Adelberg, Nate Purinton, Eric Nehs, Matt Orso, Craig Nordquist, and Zach Lupica, as well as writers Brad Lefton and Joe Posnanski. I received this research packet just moments ago, as I and a limited number of privileged recipients have done each morning throughout the season. These routinely brilliant packets are designed to be particularly useful to those of us thinking about the day ahead, making us appear especially brilliant. Today’s inbox delight opens with a bit of baseball history, my turf. As to the rest, it is my privilege to share with a wider readership the sort of pleasure I get every day.
1) And then, there were four.
2) It’s Friday the 13th
This was the 13th season the Nationals have played in Washington, D.C.
Let me explain why the Nats don’t win.
The Washington Nationals have still never won a playoff series. I said it five years ago, and I keep saying it. Bad Karma.
The Baseball Gods don’t like it when good teams don’t do everything possible to win a World Series. The Nationals had a chance to win it all in 2012. They handicapped themselves, and didn’t give themselves a chance.
That is what the Nationals did in the 2012 season. The organization actually shut down Stephen Strasburg after his start on September 7 that season because he was around 160 innings pitched. Let me refresh your memory: General Manager Mike Rizzo (with the tacit blessing of Strasburg and agent Scott Boras) did not give him time off, and they did not pitch him in relief, and they did not go to a 6-man rotation. Nope, they shut him down.
The best record the Nationals have ever had remains the 2012 season, when they won 98 games (they won 97 this year). But the Nats felt comfortable not pitching Strasburg in that postseason. So after throwing top of the rotation pitchers Gio Gonzalez (more on him later) and Jordan Zimmermann, the Nats played the first home game ever at Nationals Park with Edwin Jackson pitching instead of Strasburg. Seriously.
Edwin gave up a single and run-scoring double in the first inning. He gave up a double, single, three-run homer, and single to the first four batters he faced in the second inning.
The Nationals had Game 3, Game 4, and Game 5 all played at home (that year, MLB had a 2–3 format in the Division Series). The Nats lost Game 5 by a score of 9–7. Gio Gonzalez was staked to a 6–0 lead. But karma wasn’t going to allow this team to win. No sir! Not then, not ever.
Nationals Playoff history
2012: Lost Division Series 3–2 to St. Louis (5th game at home)
2014: Lost Division Series 3–1 to San Francisco
2016: Lost Division Series 3–2 to Los Angeles (5th game at home)
2017: Lost Division Series 3–2 to Chicago (5th game at home)
So, the Nationals had a better record than their opponent (earning Home Field Advantage in Game 5) in all four years they reached the postseason.
In 2012, they blew a six-run lead at home in the deciding game.
In 2014, well, let me say this: Somehow, the Nationals lost Game 4 in San Francisco in 2014, or they would have schlepped everyone back across the country for a Game 5 at Nationals Park.
In 2016, Max Scherzer (more on him later) was nursing a 1–0 lead through six innings. He was nine outs away from leading his team into the World Series for the first time.
In the top of the 7th inning of Game 5 in 2016, Max Scherzer allowed a leadoff home run to Joc Pederson which tied the game. Dusty Baker then pulled Max, who was around the 100-pitch mark.
Scherzer was one of six Washington pitchers needed to get three Dodgers out in the seventh inning. Dusty tried Marc Rzepczynski, Blake Treinen, Sammy Solis, Shawn Kelley, and Oliver Perez.
The Nats would tease their fans by getting closer, only to see the best pitcher of the generation (Clayton Kershaw) come in and record a save after the Dodgers closer needed to get 7 outs (sound familiar, Washington fans)?
Oh, I forgot. Stephen Strasburg didn’t pitch after September 7, in 2016 either. This time, he was injured (flexor mass strain in right arm) and missed the postseason.
Strasburg didn’t pitch in 2012 postseason (essentially, by choice). You cannot sit a healthy athlete, thinking there will be other opportunities in the future. You can’t guarantee the pitcher’s elbow will hold up. You cannot even guarantee that the mold in five-star hotel rooms won’t cause illness. Thank goodness for anti-biotics!
If you add up the four postseason series the Nats have played, you’ll find the Nationals have played 19 postseason games. More than 31% of those games have been started by — guess who — Gio Gonzalez.
Gio Gonzalez: postseason history (0–0, 4.78 ERA)
Gio has never gotten an out in the sixth inning of six playoff starts. And he’s walked 19 batters in 26.1 innings. That’s 6.5 BB/9 innings. In his regular season career, he’s walked 3.7 BB/9 IP.
And I don’t want to pick on Gio too much. The Nationals won three of those six starts.
Did you know that Max Scherzer’s teams have lost each of the last seven postseason games he’s appeared in (and 11 of the last 14)?
Now, I know he’s pitched well at times, brilliant at times. But his teams lose. Sometimes, they lose 9–8 (like in Game 5, when Max was the losing pitcher in relief). Sometimes, they lose 2–1 (like the Nats did in Game 3, when Max pitched 6.1 no-hit innings to begin).
Scherzer started twice in last year’s NLDS against the Dodgers. His team lost 4–3 and 4–3. Max pitched six innings, and six innings. He gave up five hits, and five hits.
Nationals wrap-up
Ø They took over first place in the Division on April 18, never relinquished it, and won the division by 20 games.
Ø They clinched their division on September 10.
Ø 819 runs set a franchise record, as did the 215 home runs
Ø There were a lot of positives in their season. Ryan Zimmerman put up career numbers. Michael A. Taylor has proven to be a dynamic outfielder who really stepped in and replaced Adam Eaton.
Ø And then, there is Jayson Werth, finishing off his contractual obligations to the Nationals.
3) Marc Adelberg gets creative in figuring out what Jayson was Werth.
**SCENE SET**
**Sunday, December 5, 2010…Disney’s Swan and Dolphin Resort**
The Winter Meetings are just one day away. The MLB Network crew has just arrived in Orlando to finish setting up for four days of coverage at the still-sleepy resort. The shock of record cold temperatures in Orlando — the week saw the thermometer drop into the mid-30s — is matched only by the shock of the substantiated rumor: Jayson Werth agreed to a nine-figure deal.
MLBN PRODUCER: Did you hear?
MLBN RESEARCHER: Hear what?
MLBN PRODUCER: Jayson Werth is signing with the Nationals…
MLBN RESEARCHER: The last-place Natio —
MLBN PRODUCER: …For $126 million!
MLBN EXEC: Isn’t that an outrageous overpay?
**SCENE**
October 13, 2017 — Washington, D.C.
When Jayson Werth struck out for the second out in the ninth inning on Thursday, it might have been his last swing in a Nationals uniform. It’s natural to look back at his D.C. career and wonder if he lived up to the money.
Ever since news broke of Werth’s agreement on the eve of the 2010 Winter Meetings, we’ve asked: “Really?” “Really?” wasn’t the only question. “How did he get that much?” “Why would he leave a four-time division champion to sign with the perennial doormat in the NL East?” “How old is he?” “Will he keep his beard?” (Just kidding.)
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo answered the questions even before they were asked. Soon after the news broke, he explained his side. “Phase 1 was scouting and player development, building the farm system,” Rizzo said. “Now it’s the time to go to the second phase and really compete for division titles and championships.”
Obviously, one player does not a division winner make. But in Rizzo’s mind, a team which finished in fourth or fifth in the NL East in seven straight seasons needed Werth’s skill and experience; “The Beard” made for a worthy addition at any cost.
While the contract figures opened eyes — it was the 12th-most lucrative contract in baseball history, at the time — Werth’s early production went a long way towards validating the deal. Werth played only 81 games due to injury in 2012, but he slashed .300/.387/.440 to help the club to its first NL East title. Although he finished only one season in D.C. with counting statistics approaching those he recorded in Philly (2013: 25 HR, 82 RBI), for much of his contract his performance was well above average. From 2011–14, Werth had a .375 OBP and 126 OPS+ — or 26 percent above league average. Likely as important as his production, Werth provided a consistent and professional approach in the middle of a young lineup. Though his impact waned in the last three years, he remained a difficult out — a cog in one of the National League’s most prolific offenses.
4) Nate Purinton gets us ready for Game 1 of the ALCS with an outstanding preview.
The Astros and Yankees square off the in the ALCS in which the two AL MVP candidates will be on the same field. One played like an MVP in the ALDS. The other did not.
ALDS Comparison
While the Judge-Altuve comparison will be a frequent conversation, the series pits an excellent Astros offense that specializes in making contact against a Yankees staff built on swing-and-miss stuff.
The Yankees have an edge in this series in rotation depth and in the bullpen but there’s not a massive difference. However, the Astros lineup is much, much deeper than the Yankees. Houston had ten players with at least 250 plate appearances who were better than league average offensively (100 OPS+ or better). By comparison, the Yankees had six players who were better than league average in 2017.
Brett Gardner, who delivered the best at-bat in the postseason against Cody Allen on Wednesday, needs to be impactful for the Yankees. If he can get on-base, it makes pitching to Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez that much more difficult. And Brian McCann struggles to control the running game. Gardner stole 23 bases in 28 attempts during the regular season.
Lowest Caught Stealing Pct.
2017 MLB (Min. 600 Innings at Catcher)
Kevan Smith 12.5%
Brian McCann 12.9%*
Travis d’Arnaud 16.7%
Caleb Joseph 18.2%
*McCann: 54 steals allowed in 62 attempts
Beyond those numbers, there is some fun to be had when comparing the Yankees and Astros’ respective postseason histories.
During the Astros rebuild from 2011 to 2014, the team averaged 104 losses per year. Since the franchise was first known as the Yankees in 1914 (previously the Highlanders), the team has never lost 100 games in a season.
5) Japanese-born pitchers will decide who plays in the World Series.
There are six Japanese-born pitchers who are active: Kenta Maeda, Hisashi Iwakuma, Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, Kojj Uehara, Junichi Tazawa.
Three of them (Tanaka, Darvish, and Maeda) will play key roles in the League Championship Series. Tanaka starts Game 1 for the Yankees. Darvish will start Game 2 or Game 3 for the Dodgers. Maeda will be used in the “Andrew Miller” role — unleashed for multi-innings at any point.
Brad Lefton is a bilingual, St. Louis based journalist who has covered baseball in Japan and America for more than two decades. I emailed him for his thoughts on the three pitchers.
Brad: It’s tough to say who was the best between Tanaka, Maeda, and Darvish because each was accomplished in his own way.
All three were considered elite pitchers before they came to MLB. They have 5 Sawamura Awards (Cy Young equivalent) between them: Tanaka (’11 & ’13), Darvish (’07), and Maeda (’10 & ’15).
However, Tanaka and Darvish have 2 things Maeda does not: both starred in the National High School Baseball Tournament before turning pro and both led their pro teams to a Japan Series title.
The Carp never made the Japan Series during Maeda’s years. He played at an elite baseball high school but never made the championship game. Darvish famously pitched a no hitter in the first round of the spring tourney in ’04. That’s a huge deal in Japan and earned him instant and forever lasting notoriety. Tanaka outdid Darvish at the high school tourney, earning him even greater acclaim.
As pros, Tanaka had a perfect 24–0 season and led Rakuten to the 2013 Japan Series title; Darvish’s Fighters went to the Japan Series 3 times during his career, winning it all in 2006 and individually, he led the Pacific League in strike outs 3 times in 7 seasons.
In conclusion, I’d say Maeda doesn’t have the high school background these guys have nor has he led his team to a Japan Series title, so his stature may have been slightly less when he came over.
Tanaka was teammates with Darvish on the 2008 Japanese Olympic Team. Masahiro was the youngest Japanese baseball player to play in the Olympics. He was a middle reliever on the team, with a 0.00 ERA.
And if the situation works out, Tanaka could meet Darvish in a World Series start.
Eric Nehs has a bit more to say about Tanaka:
Some in the media were surprised by Joe Girardi going with Masahiro Tanka as his Game 1 starter in the ALCS and not Sonny Gray. The move didn’t surprise me. Girardi is going with who he thinks is his best starter right now and throwing out all of the other noise like home/road splits and numbers on extra rest.
Let’s start with Tanaka’s home/road splits this season. All I’ve heard this week is that the Yankees should avoid pitching Tanaka on the road. I can’t argue that Tanaka has struggled on the road this season, but I’m not convinced that it’s randomness because some of his bigger blowup games coming on the road this season. Just look at his 2016 road numbers, Tanaka was a lot better on the road than he was in Yankee Stadium.
Bonus fact: Don’t ever cite DAY/NIGHT splits for Tanaka either. Tanaka’s worst start of the year came vs. the Astros AT Yankee Stadium on Sunday Night Baseball on May 14. Even though that game started sometime after 7 PM ET, all databases call that a DAY game because it was the second game of a single admission doubleheader that started before 4 PM.
Then there’s the fact that Tanaka is that much better on extra rest. Is that really the case? Tanaka’s will make Friday’s start on regular rest, and is ERA shows that he’s been just about the same pitcher. Now he isn’t as dominant as shown by his Opp. OPS and K/9, but this shouldn’t preclude him from starting on Friday.
6) The Yankees will face Dallas Keuchel in a postseason game. Dallas is 1.41 ERA in six regular season starts vs. the Yankees (plus six scoreless in the 2015 Wild Card Game).
The last time they faced Keuchel in a postseason game, Girardi batted Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, and Brian McCann in the 3–4–5 spots in the batting order.
Hmmm, that won’t work this time around.
Okay, those three aren’t around. Who should DH against Keuchel?
Matt Orso breaks it down. Yankees designated hitters are 0-for-20 in during the 2017 postseason. The club’s primary options at DH are Chase Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury and Matt Holliday.
Headley is 0-for-12 AB with six strikeouts during the 2017 postseason. In fact, dating back to the end of the regular season, he’s is 16–80 AB (.200) with no extra-base hits and 18 strikeouts in his last 24 contests.
The switch-hitter has struggled against left-handed pitchers this season, slashing .256/.299/.404 in 156 at-bats (including the postseason).
Ellsbury is 0-for-8 AB with two strikeouts during the 2017 postseason. He’s 5–38 AB (.132) with one extra-base hit in his last 12 games dating back to the end of the regular season. Ellsbury is slashing .238/.298/.333 with 30 strikeouts in 105 at-bats vs. left-handed pitchers this season.
Holliday hasn’t appeared in a game yet during the postseason, though he was on the roster for the LDS and Wild Card games.
Holliday’s slashed just .179/.225/.300 with four home runs in 37 games following the All-Star break. He was limited to just 105 games this season due to two separate DL stints (a viral infection and a left lumbar strain).
Ellsbury did not start vs. Keuchel in the 2015 AL Wild Card Game against Keuchel and he shouldn’t start Friday! He’s 2–16 AB (.125) with three strikeouts in his career vs. the Astros’ lefty.
So who would Orso put in as the DH?
In the 2017 playoffs, DH’s are slashing just .219/.305/.301 with no home runs and five RBI in 73 at-bats.
Ronald Torreyes slashed .292/.314/.375 in 315 at-bats with the Yankees in the regular season (he’s 0–1 AB during the 2017 postseason). He hits left-handers. He’s never faced Keuchel.
The great Craig Nordquist updates our Stats that may only be of interest to us
Scoring by Inning This Postseason
1–32 .255 / .349 / .582 14 HR
2–18 .250 / .351 / .399 4 HR
3–20 .243 / .313 / .426 6 HR
4–20 .262 / .357 / .421 4 HR
5–20 .201 / .268 / .351 6 HR
6–19 .221 / .327 / .371 4 HR
7–21 .248 / .315 / .416 6 HR
8–22 .246 / .335 / .458 7 HR
9–7 .229 / .267 / .271 1 HR
Extras — 1 .125 / .250 / .125 0 HR
Postseason HR by Year Since Wild Card Game Introduced in 2012
2017 52
2016 71
2015 91
2014 57
2013 55
2012 61
All Teams This Postseason When Leading Off An Inning: .227/.296/.383
*Lowest AVG in this scenario for any postseason since 2013
The overall ERA of all teams this postseason is 4.33 … the highest since 2011 (4.62)
7) Double-play combos!
2B/SS combinations can be key in this day and age. Here are the double-play combos remaining:
Chicago: Baez/Russell
L.A.: Utley or Forsythe/Seager
Houston: Altuve/Correa
NY: Castro/Gregorius
This is the ninth single season in which a double play duo posted six-win seasons, and the second consecutive season for Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. Joe Gordon and Lou Boudreau are the only other combo to accomplish it twice.
I narrowed it down to get rid of the glove first guys like Omar Vizquel and Mark Belanger. This is just the third season EVER with a double play duo posting a six-win season with an OPS+ higher than 130.
8) Zach Lupica asks: Can we give Yasiel Puig a little love?
It seems for the past couple of seasons Yasiel Puig has been a constant target for ridicule by Dodger fans, baseball purists, analysts and many more. For some reason or another I’ve always liked Puig. I never minded the antics. Should he be missing workouts or showing up late? Of course not. Does he sometimes take the #antics too far? Sure. But to me he’s always been a fun watch. And not only did he have a pretty good season, he had a great NLDS. So let’s give the guy a little credit where credit is due.
Regular season:
Puig was the Dodgers’ best defensive player. Hands down.
· He led the Dodgers this season with 18 defensive runs saved (Seager was next with 10).
· You could make a case for Puig getting the gold glove in right field, he was tied with Jason Heyward among NL RF with 18 DRS.
· He led the Dodgers with a 12.1 UZR (Seager was next at 6.7)
Puig hit .263 this season with 28 homers and 74 RBI with an OPS of .833
· Puig was the Dodgers’ most durable player. He led the Dodgers with 152 games played this season.
· The 28 homers were 9 more than his previous career-high of 19 in his rookie season
· The 74 RBI were 5 more than his previous career-high of 69 in 2014
Postseason (yes, I know it’s only been three games):
Puig hit a combined 4–25 AB (.160 AVG) over 13 games in the 2015 and 2016 playoffs. He already has more hits this postseason than the last two combined.
Puig is 5–11 AB (.455 AVG) with a double, a triple and four RBI during 3 games in the NLDS
Puig saw 3.72 pitches per plate appearances in the regular season — He is seeing 5.77 pitches per plate appearance in the playoffs (he has seen 75 pitches — 6 more than any other Dodger).
- No player who has had more than one plate appearance has seen more pitches/plate appearances this postseason
Puig went 2–3 AB with a triple and a walk in the seventh inning or later vs the D-Backs.
In the regular season he hit just .183 off left-handed pitching (he is a .260 career hitter off lefties). In the Division Series he went 2–3 AB off lefties, both singles (Robby Ray and Jorge De La Rosa) with runners in scoring position.
In the regular season he swung and missed at 24.8% of pitches. This postseason he has swung 35 times and whiffed just 4 times (11.4% miss %).
Puig has struck out just one time in 13 plate appearances this postseason.
This all for a guy who was sent to the minors on August 2nd last season. Not bad.
Joe Posnanski from MLB.com seems to share some similar sentiments regarding Puig and this Dodgers squad:
The whole “X factor” cliche gets overused, and few people seem to even know what it means to begin with. But maybe X is the the exact right letter for Puig. He can do anything on a baseball diamond. He can beat teams with his speed, his power, his hitting talents, his defense, his arm. He electrifies crowds, both home and away, with the way he plays the game. In the NLDS, he got the biggest cheers in Dodger Stadium, the biggest boos when the Dodgers went to Arizona, and you figure it will be that way throughout the postseason.
Yes, maybe Puig is the X, the one marking the spot, the one in the center square, the constant in the algebra problem, the multiplication sign in the Dodgers’ hopes. If the Wild Horse keeps going like this, you wonder if anyone can catch him or the Dodgers.
9) Tweets we like:
This game reminds me of my 5-year-old. It is brilliant and maddening and amazing and frustrating and fun to watch and pure, utter insanity.
In a few weeks Kluber & Scherzer may be handed Cy Youngs. After saying “congrats” 1st question: “have u recovered from miserable DS losses?”
October baseball going into LCS:Starting P 165 1/3 IP, Relievers 171 2/3
More
Kenny Lofton and Jose Vizcaino are the only players to play for the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees and Astros
For 100 years, Jose Lobaton was safe, and no one thought differently. Replay wasn’t designed for this.
Mike Petriello @mike_petriello
That was the best terrible game I’ve ever seen. Congrats, Cubs. Your reward is a cross-country flight to start.. John Lackey, really? in LA.
13 chances to make it to a league semifinal [for DC teams] since 1998. 13 losses. Defies comprehension
Mark Zuckerman @MarkZuckerman
Lotta disconsolate people in that clubhouse, but Werth (nearly choking up), Wieters (took full blame) and Scherzer topped the list.
That is, quite frankly, the most Nationals playoff moment of all time.
Andy McCullough @McCulloughTimes
Dodgers-Cubs is the matchup everyone wanted in March and then forgot about for six months. Great theater ahead.
Definitely how you want to decide one of the wildest MLB playoff games of the past decade. On a foot slipping off a base by 2 millimeters.
Final thought for tonight. NO sporting event should last 4.5 hours. Ever. @MLB
Andy McCullough @McCulloughTimes
My head might explode and I have no vested interest in the outcome
dusty looked sad and spent after. agree w/pedro, never seen him like that. nats should bring him back but doesn’t seem like a given at moment
10) Dusty Baker: tortured manager. Nate Purinton shows us just how frustrating.
Was this Dusty’s best team?
Dusty Baker’s illustrious managerial career spans 22 seasons. Take out the two strike-impacted years of ’94 and ’95 and his teams have averaged 87 wins per year. And in 1993, the final full season before the implementation of the Wild Card, his Giants won 103 games, finishing with the second best record in the majors but did not make the playoffs as their NL West rival Braves won 104 games. Baker has managed some of the greatest players of the post-expansion era from Barry Bonds to Sammy Sosa to Ken Griffey Jr. to Joey Votto to Bryce Harper. After enduring yet another postseason heartbreak, we ask: what was his best team? And was it this year’s Nationals? Here are the ten candidates.
Let’s break them down:
1993 Giants: 103–59, Finished 2nd in NL West
Case For:
· It was his best team by regular season win total. Since MLB moved to a 162-game schedule, the ’93 Giants are the only 100-win team to miss the postseason.
· In his first season in San Francisco, Barry Bonds was the best player in baseball, winning a second consecutive NL MVP. He batted .336/.458/.677 with 46 homers, 123 RBI, 129 runs scored and 29 steals. His 9.9 WAR was his best of any year prior to his steroid-infused seasons in the early 2000s.
Case Against:
· The team didn’t have a true ace, a dominant starter that could halt a losing streak…like the eight-game skid in mid-September that allowed the Braves to leapfrog them in the NL West race. Bill Swift won 21 games that year, finishing with a 2.82 ERA. But he had a six-start stretch from mid-August into mid-September where the Giants lost five of his six starts while he posted a 5.91 ERA.
1997 Giants: 90–72, won NL West (lost 3–0 to Marlins in NLDS)
Case For:
· Barry Bonds was on the team? Bonds hit 40 homers while posting a .446 on-base. He stole 37 bases, his final year with at least 30 steals.
Case Against:
· The team had a negative run differential, and was summarily dismissed by the Marlins in three games in the NLDS. Baker’s ’93 team and later San Francisco teams were better, both offensively and on the pitching side.
2000 Giants: 97–65, won NL West (lost 3–1 to Mets in NLDS)
Case For:
· In the first year at then Pac Bell Park, the 2000 Giants scored 925 runs, 53 runs more than any other Dusty Baker-managed club. Their +178 run differential is also the best of any Baker-run club.
· Jeff Kent (.334/.424/.596, 33 HR, 125 RBI) stole an NL MVP from his teammate, Bonds (.306/.440/.688, 49 HR, 106 RBI). J.T. Snow (19 HR, 96 RBI) and Ellis Burks (24 HR, 96 RBI) were excellent complimentary pieces.
Case Against:
· Like many of his San Francisco teams, the 2000 squad lacked an ace. Livan Hernandez won 17 games but posted a 3.75 ERA, above league average but not dominant. After Livan, it was Russ Ortiz (5.01 ERA in 195.2 IP), Shawn Estes (4.26 ERA in 190.1 IP), and Kirk Reuter (3.96 ERA in 184 IP).
· The dominant Giants offense disappeared after a Game One win in the NLDS vs. the Mets.
2002 Giants: 95–66, first in NL West (lost 4–3 to Angels in World Series)
Case For:
· This was one of Dusty’s best pitching staffs in San Francisco. The team allowed just 616 runs, second fewest in the NL (Atlanta: 565).
· This team lacked the offensive depth of previous Giants’ teams but Jeff Kent (.313, 37 HR, 108 RBI) and Barry Bonds (.370/.582/.799, 46 HR, 110 RBI) were arguably the best one-two punch in the majors.
Case Against:
· This is one of Dusty’s best teams. The pitching staff collapsed in the Fall Classic, allowing ten runs over their final ten innings of work to lose the series.
· The offense could have been more balanced, especially in the World Series.
Kent and Bonds: .348 (16–46 AB), 7 HR, 13 RBI, 14 runs
Rest of Team: .265 (50–189 AB), 7 HR, 29 RBI, 30 runs
2003 Cubs: 88–74, first in NL Central (lost 4–3 to Marlins in NLCS)
Case For:
· Unlike his teams in San Francisco, the ’03 Cubs had an ace. Two, in fact. And you could argue that Carlos Zambrano in ’03 was better than any pitcher Baker had during his tenure in San Francisco.
Kerry Wood: 14–11, 3.20 ERA, 266 K in 211 IP
Mark Prior: 18–6, 2.43 ERA, 245 K in 211.1 IP
Zambrano: 13–11, 3.11 ERA, 168 K in 214 IP
· The ’03 Cubs pitching staff led the NL in strikeouts and were third in ERA (3.83).
Case Against:
· The ’03 Cubs’ +41 run differential is the second lowest (to ’97 Giants) of any of the ten candidates for Dusty Baker’s best teams.
· The team was not particularly strong defensively with sub-par corner outfielders (36-year old Moises Alou and 34-year old Sammy Sosa) and a below-average shortstop (Alex Gonzalez).
· The Cubs bullpen was mediocre…4.16 ERA, eighth in the NL. You could argue the iffy ‘pen led Dusty to lean on his starters more heavily than he might have liked. 22-year old Mark Prior led the majors, averaging 113.4 pitches per start and threw 249 pitches combined in his first two postseason games entering Game Six of the 2003 NLCS. After Game Six, he would make just 57 more starts in his big league career. The Cubs ‘pen posted a 7.88 ERA in the final three games of the LCS as the Cubs lost a 3–1 series lead to the Marlins.
2010 Reds: 91–71, won NL Central (lost 3–0 to Phillies in NLDS)
Case For:
· The 2010 Reds were an over-achieving team, thanks to their offense. Six players hit 18 or more homers. The Reds led the National League in homers (188) and runs scored (790).
· Joey Votto burst onto the scene, winning the NL MVP by batting .324/.424/.600 with 37 homers and 113 RBI.
Case Against:
· The pitching staff was fairly pedestrian. Bronson Arroyo (17–10) and Johnny Cueto (12–7) were the only starters to post double-digit win totals. They were quickly swept by the pitching-rich Phillies in the 2010 NLDS, getting no-hit by Roy Halladay in Game One of that series.
2012 Reds: 97–65, first in NL Central (lost 3–2 to Giants in NLDS)
Case For:
· The 2012 Reds allowed fewer runs than any other Dusty Baker-managed club…Only the Rays (577) allowed fewer runs across MLB than the Reds (588) in 2012.
· Baker’s starters were incredibly durable. His starting five: Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, and Mike Leake combined to start 161 of the Reds’ 162 games that season.
· Besides the dominant starters, the Reds featured Aroldis Chapman as their closer. He was electric, posting a 1.51 ERA while converting 38 of 43 saves.
Case Against:
· The 2012 Reds jumped out to a 2–0 series lead vs. the Giants in the 2012 NLDS and then collapsed losing three consecutive games at home. The team went 3–24 AB with RISP over the final three games including a Scott Rolen strikeout with the tying runs on-base to end the series.
· You could argue that the team lacked a true ace. This squad could have easily won the NL pennant that season had they gotten past the Giants and faced off with the Cardinals in the NLCS.
2013 Reds: 90–72 (2nd Wild Card, lost to Pirates in Wild Card Game)
Case For:
· This team had a superb top-of-the-lineup with Shin-Soo Choo (.423 OBP, 107 Runs), Brandon Phillips (18 HR, 103 RBI), Joey Votto (.435 OBP, 24 HR, 101 Runs) and Jay Bruce (30 HR, 109 RBI).
Case Against:
· The 2012 squad was probably better even though the 2013 team had a better run differential.
· The team’s significant offensive threats were lefties. Francisco Liriano started the NL Wild Card Game for the Pirates and dominated the Reds, eliminating them from postseason contention.
2016 Nationals: 95–67, first in NL East (lost 3–2 to Dodgers in NLDS)
Case For:
· The 2016 Nationals had arguably the best pitcher in the NL (Max Scherzer: 20–7, 2.96 ERA, 284 K) and one of the best hitters: Daniel Murphy (.347, 25 HR, 104 RBI).
· Six batters recorded 20 or more homers. And Bryce Harper had a down year: .243 AVG, 24 HR, 86 RBI)!
Case Against:
· After an historic MVP season in 2015, Bryce Harper played through injuries and wasn’t an impact player after early May. Strasburg missed the postseason due to a flexor mass strain.
2017 Nationals: 97–65, won NL East
Case For:
· The 2017 Nationals may be Baker’s most balanced team. He has a number of elite offensive players: Ryan Zimmerman (36 HR, 108 RBI), Bryce Harper (1.008 OPS, 29 HR, 87 RBI), Anthony Rendon (.301, 25 HR, 100 RBI), and Daniel Murphy (.322, 23 HR, 93 RBI). And despite being plagued by injuries, Trea Turner had 46 steals in 54 attempts while batting .284 with 75 runs in just 98 games.
· Oh, and the NL ERA Leaders from this season: Clayton Kershaw (2.31), Max Scherzer (2.51), Stephen Strasburg (2.52), Robbie Ray (2.89) and Gio Gonzalez (2.96)!
Case Against:
· The Nationals had a 4.41 bullpen ERA, eleventh in the National League. BUT after acquiring Ryan Madson, Brandon Kintzler, and Sean Doolittle, the bullpen stabilized. The ‘pen was a run better (3.36 ERA) from July 16, the day the team traded for Doolittle and Madson, through the end of the season.
· Injuries. This club was snake-bit. Key offseason acquisition, Adam Eaton, tore his ACL back in April. And Bryce Harper missed the final month and a half after an ugly knee injury. Harper’s mediocre postseason performance reflected a player still working his way back from injury.
10 Things I Think I Think for Friday, October 13, 2017 was originally published in Our Game on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.