“Baseball’s pressing question,” as SI headed Tom Verducci’s story
On Tuesday, June 20, “What Happened to Baseball?” by the great Tom Verducci hit my inbox; slated for the print edition of Sports Illustrated dated June 26, it provided what I called, on social media, a “fine summation of baseball’s current dilemma.” An SI editor kindly supplied this snapshot: “The two-headed monster of home runs and strikeouts, coupled with the pace of play dilemma, are threatening the future of the national pastime.” I urge you to read it, in print or online: https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/06/20/standstill-pace-play-cody-bellinger-clayton-kershaw.
The Facebook response to my posting the link was overwhelming and, I think, illustrative of how long-term fans, many of them with an advanced sabermetric understanding, view the problem in baseball today, from pace of play, to too many homers and strikeouts, to strategic dumbing-down. I offer for its possible thought provocation three days of unedited responses to my original terse post, with its link to Tom’s story.
Steve Treder Some of us have been expressing this concern for several years now, and the dynamic just continues to exert itself. Baseball is most fun and interesting when the ball is put in play with runners on base.
Gabriel Schechter I haven’t read this article yet (I will), but I suspect that its message can be summed up in what I’ve said for awhile: we’re getting more pitchers who can’t pitch (as opposed to throwing), and more hitters who can’t hit the ball. Even the mightiest sluggers average just two HR a week, and for that it has become acceptable to strike out once or twice a game. It
Don Stokes Great stuff. I’ve noticed the trend without the numbers available. Very few clubs hit and run or steal a base. There is no concern about BA any longer or making contact moving runners. Too many teams subscribe to walking, striking out or homeruns. When I watch games on television I find myself changing the station because of the pace of the game. It used to be an event if a pitcher struck out 10+ batters. Now it’s common place. Masahiro Tanaka pitching line this past Saturday sums it up:
4 innings
8 hits
3 Homeruns allowed
10 strikeouts
10 of the 12 outs he got was via strikeout
Kevin Reichard Earl Weaver won a lot of games without giving a crap about stolen bases.
Don Stokes Most teams did not have the pitching staff Earl Weaver had in his day. He just waited for the three run homer
Kevin Reichard My point is that this Golden Age of Baseball exists in your memories, not in the realities of how the game was really played on a daily basis. And Weaver played the same way no matter who he had as a starter — whether it was Gene Brabender in 1968 or Ken Dixon in 1986. Gene Mauch managed the way you seem to be advocating for and didn’t win squat; Earl Weaver did the opposite and won.
Don Stokes So Kevin Reichard what’s the need for a good manager any longer? No need to call for pitch outs any more because no one is really going to steal or hit and run. You don’t have to worry about a pitcher facing the same batter three times because he’s not going to be around to pitch to him. The only strategy left is matchups and which player is going to burn you with the longball.
Kevin Reichard It’s always been about the matchups. And managers aren’t perfect. Have you watched a Minnesota Twins game this season? Paul Molitor is doing everything wrong, according to the “experts,” and the team stats are horrible, but his team is a contender. BTW, you should check out Jim Kaat’s Twitter feed. He’s been posting about how worthless most stats are (he HATES exit velocity) and all that matters is win/loss.
Don Stokes I’m not a proponent of “exit velocity” either
David Goldberg The shift to the HR/K preference will be (is?) MLB’s version of the three-point field goal. Some will like it. Some won’t. But it will (has?) made the game permanently unrecognizable from the one that went before it.
Jerry Cohen The game has become more and more one-dimensional for decades. Younger fans seem not to have the attention span or interest in the situational aspects of the game (those many of us find most interesting), and just want to see “action” (or what they think of as action). This mentality also effects young players, who don’t come into the big leagues with the same fundamental skills as players from past eras. The result is a continual race to the bottom.
Bill Parker I just really wish people could write about these issues and propose little corrections to them without all the end-of-days hyperbole. These swings happen, baseball remains just fine. (Also, watching guys strike out on 100-MPH fastballs and hit 450-foot home runs is plenty exciting, IMO.)
Mark Armour When baseball occasionally breaks itself (which it has done now) it is not because the players are worse — it is because they are better. Pitchers are better — much better, miles better — then they were 25 years ago. It is harder to hit them. And hitters, when they do hit them, are hitting the ball harder and farther because they are also better.
John Ford I’ve been a baseball fan for forty-seven years. This is the first of those years in which the game frequently bores me.
Don Stokes I disagree that pitchers are better now than they were years ago. They just throw harder than years ago plus they also know they can “empty” the tank in regards to knowing 5–6 innings is all that is expected of starting pitchers. It doesn’t make them better
Mark Armour OK, perhaps I should say that pitchING is better. Perhaps Sandy Koufax was better than Chris Sale, but Chris Sale for 7 innings followed by two relievers that throw 100, which is today’s reality, is as good as any “pitcher” who has ever lived.
Walter Cherniak Kimbrel, as an example, is averaging something like 18 K’s per 9 IP. Basically one or two guys at most make contact against him in a typical outing.
Don Stokes Relief pitching especially the middle and late inning relievers are much better today because of the expendability of arms. There are very few true ace starters in the league right now
John Thorn Starters are better, relievers are better, hitters are better, fielders are better. Usage patterns and playing trends can, however, blind us to this.
Mike Warwick Pitchers are better period. Usage patterns keep this era’s starters from putting up the same totals as starters from previous eras.
Mark Armour Johnny Keane left a gassed Bob Gibson in Game 7 of the 1964 World Series, and it became the stuff of legend. (He allowed two home runs in the ninth, but held on.) If he had had Kelsey Jansen in his bullpen, it would have been gross incompetence to leave Gibson in the game. But he didn’t.
Jerry Cohen It seems to me the game seems “broken” when the balance of pitching, offense, defense, power, goes too far off…The key when that happens is not to panic by A) tacitly allowing cheating (the Steroids Era) or B) passing foolish rule changes (the DH).
Don Stokes How are starters better when they don’t learn how to work out of trouble ? Vin Scully himself stated this was one of the issues he has with today’s game that pitchers are not given the chance any longer as they had been in years past. And I’m not talking about the numbers or wins or innings pitched. Im talking about 2nd and 3rd with one out in the 6th inning and it’s not Kershaw or Dallas Keuchel out there.
Mike Warwick Vin Scully’s not infallible. And he’s just as prone to ‘Everything was better when *I* was young’ babble as anyone.
Mark Armour To be honest, I think its high time that baseball panicked. History and tradition are the balls and chains that keep baseball from fixing itself.
Jerry Cohen History and tradition are what keep baseball from becoming arena football.
Don Stokes Why? Don’t you like that bottom of the eighth inning two run homer so that 100 mph closer comes into the 9th inning? That’s what it’s come to now. Lift and drive the ball right out of the park.
Mark Armour What I would like is for baseball to change the rules/environment so that there are fewer strikeouts, fewer walks, fewer home runs. There are many ways to do this, but baseball will likely wait another 20 years until half the batters are striking out because … tradition.
Jerry Cohen I’m just curious, what are some of the “many ways” to do this?
Walter Cherniak Ironically, the “sabermetric revolution” is largely responsible for the growth in Three True Outcomes philosophy. I first learned from Bill James that strikeout rate = dominance, and that not making outs was the most important offensive skill.
Jerry Cohen What no one is mentioning is that everything is being driven by money. Teams invest millions in pitchers, which leads to more — not less — specialization. Baseball is not like American football, where a player spends his entire career on one specialized offensive or defensive position. Even Babe Ruth was expected to field his position for nine innings 154 times a year. The more specialized players become, the more one-dimensional the game becomes.
Richard Hershberger, to Walt Cherniak particularly: The trend was well established. Chart strikes outs per nine innings. In the mid-1920s it is about 2.8, then rises steadily for forty years to about 6. Then it drops for ten years down to about 4.8. It resumed the rise with only minor hiccups, and is not over 8. Chart home runs per nine innings for the same period and the pattern is a pretty close match. Both SOs and HRs are about three times as common as they were back then. What we are seeing today is not something new. It is a trend going back ninety years. Something will have to give eventually, but what and when is an open question.
Don Stokes The high batter strikeouts doesn’t seem to bother the average fan for some reason. They just want slugging. An example the Brewers Keon Broxton who hit 9 HR with 88 strikeouts in 75 games in 2016. This year in 67 games Broxton has 11 HR and leads baseball with 97 strikeouts. His BA is basically the same (.242 in 16, .235 this year). It’s his slugging that has gone up 30 points.
Mark Armour The point of Verducci’s column is that the average fan is bothered. Verducci is bothered. I am bothered. I doubt we are alone.
Don Stokes I’m bothered and bored with this love affair with home runs.
Walter Cherniak I think most of us would like to see more balls in play, more action generally. Give me the stolen base numbers of the 1970s and 1980s, even if many of those teams often ran unwisely.
Jerry Cohen Eliminate the DH (I know, I know…). Eliminate one of the DH-defenders arguments by teaching hitting skills again to pitchers from a young age. Teach bunting and baserunning skills again. I like the idea of making relievers face minimum number of hitters, but not sure how that would be enforced.
Mark Armour They currently have a rule that a reliever has to face one batter. This rule is enforced. If you change the rule to “two batters” it would be enforced the same way.
Jim Farmer Sr. There are more commercials between every half inning as well. When we are at the game, and the players are tossing the ball around between half innings, my kids asked me “why don’t they just play ?” I tell the because of commercials on the radio and TV are being played right now. Instead we have to wait and be “entertained” by silly scoreboard antics….Gaaaahhh !!!! Hate it.
Jerry Cohen This is the one thing guaranteed NOT to change. :)
Jim Farmer Sr. You have that right. Probably guaranteed to expand.
Richard Hershberger There was an article floating around a couple of months back. Some guy found a complete tape of a game from the ’80s, and a current game with the same number of pitches. The current game lasted substantially longer. He analyzed the differences. He concluded that commercials between innings wasn’t the problem. There are more commercials, but they cut to the commercial immediately and come back at the last instant (or a bit after), where in the ’80s the booth people did a bit of chit chat at either end. The conclusion was that the problem was time spent between pitches.
Jacob Pomrenke Grant Brisbee wrote that article and it was fantastic: https://www.sbnation.com/.../mlb-2017.../game-length/amp
Jim Farmer Sr. I have over 1000 radio broadcasts spanning 1938 to current and I can tell you, the commercial breaks are longer now. Even longer for a nationally televised games. Commercials are a PART of the reason not the main reason.
Peter Crapo Listened to a1961 O’s Yanks game -Rizzuto was the play by play guy- and he was busy trying to keep up with the pitches. Milt Pappas and Ralph Terry were wasting no time.
Robert Geel One of the trends listed, “increased pitching supply” had another effect on a game I watched the other night. Mets down 3–1, bases loaded one out. They pinch hit for the pitcher and it’s none other then another starting pitcher. Reason: teams are carrying more pitchers and less bench players these days.
Jerry Cohen Limiting the number of pitchers allowed on the roster might help.
David Dyte Yeah, make the intentional walk automatic really helped a lot.
Don Stokes Oh wait we have to get the call right from the replay booth in N.Y.C……tick..tick..tick
Mark Armour Whatever you think of the DH, it has nothing to do with this particular problem. What Verducci is talking about — what I have been talking about for years — is that there aren’t enough balls in play.
Jerry Cohen Maybe. But I take every opportunity I can to pan the DH.
Walter Cherniak You aren’t going to get more balls in play with more ABs from pitchers, that’s for sure.
Tad Richards Very good article. I’ll put forth my proposal again…limit the number of pitchers on a staff. That would cut down on the one-batter pitchers, and force pitchers to learn to pitch, and to pace themselves. Get hitters to start using the whole park. A few doubles to the opposite field, and managers will think twice about those shifts.
Mark Armour Again, if you say things like “pitchers need to learn to pitch” or “we need to teach hitters to hit again like the old days” you are definitely on the wrong track. Assume everyone is smarter and better.
Jerry Cohen I don’t know. There are a lot of hitters who don’t know how to hit situationally. I can think of a certain member of New York’s National League club, for example.
Mark Armour I think we have a tendency to think that the old guys, who spent most of their free time chasing broads and drinking, were somehow smarter than the modern players who are up late studying film. Michael Conforto probably studies opposing more this week than Art Shamsky did in his entire life.
Jerry Cohen I was thinking of a different player. When certain players think their “job” is to hit home runs rather than help their team score (and I think that is more of an issue with today’s players) then it’s a problem in a team sport that requires situational adaptation. While it is true that one can overly romanticize players from bygone eras, the opposite is also true: thinking that because today’s players are better-conditioned, they necessarily know how to play the game better. I would argue that with the amount of money and distraction in today’s game (as well as specialization) the opposite is true.
Tad Richards Pitchers are probably better, not necessarily smarter. Maybe smarter too, because they understand how the game is played today. Their job is to throw 95 miles an hour for 100 pitches, and then come out. If that weren’t their job, they’d approach pitching differently, they’d do what we used to call learning how to pitch.
Jacob Pomrenke Hitting home runs helps teams score a LOT more runs than moving runners over on a groundout to second base, that’s for sure. Let’s keep in mind that the “glory days” of the 1960s and ’70s some have mentioned were some of the worst years for offense in baseball history. Not sure we really ought to go back to those days ..
Rex Hamann I look forward to reading this article. But first I wanted to look at the ratio of HRs to strikeouts among the top HR hitters. The stats don’t lie, there is a definite preponderance of strikeouts for the top ten HR hitters (Joey Votto actually owns one of the better ratios, which surprised me). But just how different is this list and its ratios than in times past, at least for the first half of the season? Home run hitters have traditionally been prone to striking out more often than contact hitters. My issue with baseball right now is how balls and strikes are being called. They have access to the technology which allows them to know whether a pitch was a ball or a strike. Managers should be doing something to monitor this, then to bring it to the attention of the crew chief at the proper time. These bad calls make watching a baseball game unpleasant from the standpoint of the TV viewer, and are more to blame for baseball’s “dilemma” than anything else.
Don Stokes The issue is because of the trend today baseball does not encourage contact thus fewer contact hitters are created. Example Ryan Schimpf of the Padres. How many big leaguers would have stayed in the majors so long with a .158 BA as an everyday player. It was his power (14HR) which kept him in the majors.
Bruce Bonniwell Jr. Don Stokes, I agree with your posts. The game has tilted toward extreme results, K & Homer. While exciting enough in themselves, they are close to the WHOLE game now. Games which end at midnight are way too common.
Wayne Turiansky I’m not going to disagree with much of anything I’ve read here (other than the argument to eliminate the DH), but the simple fact of the matter is that nothing is going to change, repeat NOTHING IS GOING TO CHANGE as long as revenues continue to rise. There are currently 30 major league teams, and each and every one of them is drowning in money. Even the Tampa Rays, who can’t outdraw a middle school curling tournament in Saskatoon, are drowning in money. Change, schmange. Ka-ching.
Steve Treder “NOTHING IS GOING TO CHANGE as long as revenues continue to rise” Certainly true. It’s important to bear in mind that what is to us a beloved pastime, is to its investors, operators, employees, and vendors a source of income. Basic prudent common sense on their part counsels risk aversion. The calculation would have to be, persuasively, that yet more revenue and margin could be generated with a game modified by rules changes to promote more contact hitting. It isn’t difficult to see how that’s not an easy persuasion to achieve.
Harlan Ludewig Get rid of the DH!
Wayne Turiansky Um, everyone here is talking about making the game less boring. Is there anything more boring than watching pitchers try to hit?
Harlan Ludewig If you hit a batter w/ 98 u should hit
Jan Finkel I’m tired of the constant trips to the mound, pitchers stalling, and batter stepping out of the box when they haven’t moved a muscle.
Maury Brown All this hinges on the PA, but…
- Change the strike zone.
- Implement the pitch clock.
- For now, don’t touch the shift and continue the trend of having batters adjust to going inside out.
- Less mound visits.
- and if none of that works, I favor Mark’s idea of deadening the ball.
Maury Brown Oh, and put the damn DH in both leagues!
David Dyte No no no no no. (No)
Maury Brown It’s going to happen. Was discussed as part of the CBA just reached and I would be shocked if it’s not a matter for the next CBA or before.
Harlan Ludewig Damn the DH!
Maury Brown It will be in both league soon enough. It will never be abolished. MLBPA would never let it happen.
Harlan Ludewig It’s called BASEBALL- see the ball-hit the ball-catch the yada yada
Maury Brown Oh. Well that explains everything.
Bill Parker It’s called FOOTBALL- make every player a kicker
Mike Warwick Seriously — the DH has nothing to do with this and constantly complaining about something that’s been around for 45 years just makes one sound like the cliched ‘everything was better BITGOD’ crank that yells at clouds.
Mitchell Nathanson I think that what we might be seeing is what happens when the best way to play the game, technically speaking, kills it. I think we all assume that more information is better information and the more we know the better the game will be. But what if that’s not the case? I think it’s true what Verducci says — that sabermetrics has done a great job identifying the most certain ways to dominate offensively and defensively and leave the least to chance. Strikeouts do that. So do home runs. So that’s what we’re seeing — the search for pitchers with the best chance to strike hitters out and hitters adjusting their swings to get more loft on the balls they do make contact with. I think that, technically speaking, this is probably the most efficient way to play the game. But for fans this makes the games bore-fests. So what to do? You can’t really tell an organization to ignore what it knows — that it performs best when its players leave the least to chance. This is a long way of me saying that I know of no way to fix this. We’re never going back to the era of small ball and the control pitcher because those ways of playing are not the most conducive to winning. Too much can go wrong once the batter puts the ball in play. But that was infinitely more fun to watch.
Tad Richards And yet Kansas City won with smallball.
Maury Brown #Yosted
Mitchell Nathanson Yost is one of the last sabermetric holdouts. He was filleted for being so but he did win in KC. Regardless, I think the Royals will be seen as a blip on the radar. I don’t see many teams running (pun intended) to copy the style of those Royals clubs.
Tad Richards You didn’t see too many teams running to copy sabermetrics when they were new either. I’m thinking of Andy Beyer’s speed handicapping in horse racing. Nobody bought into his speed figures for a long time, until people started noticing that they worked. Then everyone started using them, and they stopped working because they no longer gave an advantage. Home runs and strikeouts will work until someone figures out a way to beat them, and then the best minds in baseball, as always, will resist the new way like crazy
Mitchell Nathanson I think that in theory you’re correct but I’m not sure how anything reduces the element of chance better than strikeouts and home runs. And that’s what seems to be the goal here. Running is great and fun to watch and all of that but it doesn’t matter if you steal 100 bases if the guys behind you can’t knock you in. Better to have a guy who can hit a bunch of homers — that way you don’t have to worry so much about the guys behind him. I don’t know how you get beyond that approach such that small ball would ever come back into vogue.
Tad Richards I am not a brilliant baseball mind, and so I am merely being theoretical here, but suppose a pitching coach who is a careful student of the game figures out a delivery that is particularly effective against the uppercutting home run swing, and all that of a sudden his pitchers are getting everyone out. And other pitching coaches start catching on. Then some smart batting coach figures out that this new delivery is not so effective against contact hitters. This is, of course, an idea that no smart baseball mind will take seriously, because smart baseball minds are resistant to new ideas. But you get a new Billy Beane, who realizes that every GM in the game is going all out to sign sluggers, and contact hitters can be gotten for bargain basement prices, so he starts signing the best ones, and he hires the smart batting coach, and he starts winning.
Mitchell Nathanson Perhaps but what I was getting at was something different: what if we have arrived upon an objective truth of baseball — that home runs and strikeouts are the most effective plays in baseball? What then?
John Thorn Baseball is an entertainment, not a symposium.
Mitchell Nathanson Right, but what happens when the best way to play the game, competitively, turns out to be boring to watch? I think this may be where we’re at right now. At that point it loses its reason for being.
Robert Tholkes Cycles…same thing post-Ruth, when the stolen base was at its nadir. It came back.
Tad Richards Mitchell Nathanson — I understood what you were getting at, and my hypothetical was only a hypothetical, but my point is that there may be no absolute objective truth. It may be that when you think you’ve found it, someone else will find a way around it.
Noah Liberman Someone is always fretting about something. As long as it’s not because of juice, I don’t mind. Interesting facts, though.
Jeff Schwitzer I’m not sure home runs and strikeouts are the best way to play baseball. The 10,12,14 Giants maybe had 1 30hr player. Put the ball in play and keep the line moving. No DH!
Jeff Schwitzer The ball is absolutely juiced. MLB loves HR’s which is why it took them so long to ferret out the roof users.
Tad Richards If the perfect defensive weapon is the strikeout, then why isn’t the best counterattack putting the ball in play?
Alan Heller Because of the 7 guys standing around the field who sometimes catch the ball that is put in play.
Tad Richards But I’m guessing that more balls get through those seven guys when the ball is put in play than when the batter strikes out. Of course, I could be wrong.
Alan Heller You’re right that putting the ball in play is better than striking out. I can’t find the stat but I believe that the chance of getting on base by putting the ball in play is about 30% better than on a strikeout. But the chance that more guys get on when they walk or hit a home run than when they hit the ball into the field of play is 100%.
Bob Keisser A lot of what we see today compares to the pitcher era in the 60s when they raised the mound. OBP plunged. Walks fell. Strikeouts increased. The HR became the primary way to score. Not baseballs best period, and neither is this. You can tell hitters know if they elevate the ball it has a chance to go out — it’s physics when most pitchers can hit 93 mph. Note that some Junkers are winning — Jason Vargas has a fastball that tops out at 86 and he has 10 wins and a low HR rate.
Kenji Takabayashi I know batting average is passé now, but when I fell in love with the game in the mid 70’s, guys that hit .250 were chastised. Now we’re paying guys that are below the Mendoza line millions to strike out. (And not care!)
Kenji Takabayashi Also, exit velo and flashing frisée lights at Yankee stadium? Just. Stop.
John Thorn Folks, I don’t agree with everything that has been posted here (of course), but I would like to run this extended conversation at Our Game later this week, maybe Friday. Anyone who might be uncomfortable with his or her inclusion should message me.
Thomas Dyja I think we’re testing the outer limits of how hard people can throw and we’re finding out that it destroys arms fast. Maybe a few more teams having to eat massive contracts for guys who then blow out their elbows will get us back to a more considered approach to pitching. What if the Mets had pumped the brakes just a little with that staff which is now in tatters?
Merritt Clifton This seems counter-intuitive, but the real answer would be as simple as going back to the big strike zone of 1963–1968, which would increase the odds of striking out so much for the low-contact, high power guys that they would have to change their batting style. As John Thorn pointed out the last time I mentioned this, the 1963–1968 era was characterized by low batting averages, but a closer look at what really happened shows a whole lot more. First, the change in strike zones appears to have badly hurt older hitters whose sense of the strike zone was well-established and hard to change, and who often were in the decline phase of their careers anyway: Stan Musial, for example, and Duke Snider. Yogi Berra, on the other hand, a notorious bad-ball hitter, prospered in 1963, the last year in which he saw significant action. Second, the larger strike zone hurt guys like Dave Nicholson, who might have become superstars in the present home run or nothing era. Third, high contact hitters who didn’t necessarily walk much prospered: Roberto Clemente, Matty Alou, Curt Flood, Pete Rose, Tony Gonzales, Manny Mota. Most of these guys would not even be regulars today because they didn’t hit for power, but they did put the ball into play to all field & keep the game exciting. Unfortunately, high-contact hitting was just beginning to come back into vogue when the weather-induced abnormally low offensive output of 1968 panicked the major leagues into returning to the smaller strike zone that made superstars of Reggie Jackson, Bobby Bonds, Mike Schmidt, and Dave Kingman, among others, despite their propensity to strike out. Could these guys have learned to fan less and make contact more, using their speed? You bet! Bonds proved it when he hit .300 in 1970, and a much more disciplined older Jackson proved it when he made a point of hitting .300 in 1980. But the way the game had begun to be played in the early sabrmetric era no longer put a premium on putting the ball into play, & that trend has only become more & more accentuated in the decades since.
Merritt Clifton An excellent individual example of what I’m talking about would be Carl Yastrzemski, who hit .300 four times during the big strike zone era of 1963–1968, winning three batting titles, but hit .300 only twice in the next 15 years. During the big strike zone era, Yastrzemski hit 40 home runs only once, & walked more than 100 times only once. Afterward, Yastrzemski hit 40 home runs twice and walked 100 times in five of the next six years. Clearly Yastrzemski changed his batting style to what was most advantageous for himself & the Red Sox relative to the playing conditions.
More responses strayed in, but I felt this was a good place to stop. — jt
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